The CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology released a conclusive study about the projected state of Australia’s climate in the late 21st century. The conclusion, based on climate modelling, was that Australia was basically going to become unlivable around the turn of the next century. Well maybe not unlivable, but certainly vastly different from it is today.
Roughly a 5˚C rise in some northern areas, with around a 2.8˚C rise in Southern Eastern Australia and Tasmania. Tasmania becomes Australia’s food bowl with increased agricultural output due to a warmer climate and rainfall, but the rest of Oz basically becomes a dust bowl due to lower precipitation by 67%.
Here is a line from the summary that struck home for me;
“By late in the century (2090), Australian average temperature is projected to increase by 0.6 to 1.7°C for a low emission scenario, or 2.8 to 5.1°C under a high emission scenario.”
Guess what? We are currently on track for the high emission scenario. With that brings half metre sea level rise and ocean acidification, which means no Great Barrier Reef.
No, I am not being dramatic.
From reading the executive summary of this study, either we start reducing greenhouse gas emissions now and maintain a habitable climate, or we join the millions of climate refugees in the near future and all move to the Tassie or join our mates in Middle Zealand.
What gets me down the most is that this is only two generations away. If I reach 80 years of age, which sounds like a pretty good innings to me, it will be the year 2044.
If my eldest son Adam reaches 80, it will be 2067.
If my two month old granddaughter Emily reaches 80 years of age, it will be 2104.
Emily, my grand-daughter
It will be her generation and her children that bear the brunt of our inaction to prevent 5 degrees of warming by the end of this century. The only saving grace for her may be the fact that Emily and her parents live in Germany, where the warming impacts may be less than Down Under. But still, we don’t really know what all this extra warming will bring to that area.
Now I ask us all one very simple question. How can we let that happen to her generation?
Well, let me tell you straight up. We should not. No bloody way!
However, lately I feel like we’ve dammed them all to hell on earth by not working hard enough to prevent such an occurrence. Not hard enough by a long shot! Pissing into the wind more like it if the last year has been anything to go by. Australia has become the laughing stock of the world, with its crappy backward looking, coal induced, climate policy.
To make matters worse, One Term Tony, our glorious prime monster, laments over farcical knighthoods and petty medicare co-payment squabbling, taking us back to the middle ages along with him and his cohorts.
With no real climate policy in place, and no visible action from the Australian Government, we have two real choices as citizens of this country; either sink into a pit of depression and do nothing or get off our bums and do something about it.
I choose the latter, especially at the grassroots level. I will not give up the fight for the sake of Emily and her children. When I look at Emily’s little face, I tear up knowing that if we do nothing, her life will be one of hardship, misery, and pain. Who wants that for their descendants?
I don’t. Do you?
I have tears in my eyes even thinking about it.
So what are we going to do about it? Now is the time to do something. Anything. Any big action, or any small behavioural change. No action is too small in my books and the time for doing nothing at all is long past. We just don’t have the time to spare.
But before you all rush out there and start knitting your own hemp knickers and socks, or brewing your beer from nettles, remember that a little bit of knowledge goes a long way when it comes to living sustainably.
Read through the blog’s archives, take a workshop or two to increase your skills, or visit a sustainable living event near you if you get the opportunity. You will then feel a lot more comfortable if you get your dominoes lined up before you let the first one topple. You will probably make a few like-minded friends who can help you along the way.
To drive it home, let our community know via comment, what you are going to do to lower your personal carbon emissions and prevent them from rising further. YOU CAN MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE!
If this blog post has got you all fired up and you need get a few things off your chest, then vent via comment. Go for it and do it for future generations. We have a moral imperative to act quickly as possible because the world waits for no one.
So don’t do it for me. Don’t do it for yourself. Do it for Emily and her generation. They deserve better than what we are currently dishing out here in Australia.
Show her that we care enough to make that difference.
Thank you for the blog post. I can’t tell you how upsetting it was to read it (I have a three year old son), and yet liberating to have somebody vent these thoughts. It’s been over a year since I started reading about climate change (enabled by an opening up of channels of information through Twitter, it’s worth noting). I’m still struggling to deal with it emotionally. I feel almost paralyzed, not knowing what I can do for my son who is, clearly, totally oblivious. Worst of all it’s nearly impossible to talk about it with others. I think for most people, climate change is a thing they’ve heard about, without really knowing what it means. They still expect you to keep on driving, keep on consuming, keep on going on holiday and keep on turning the cogs in a system that is strangling us. I suddenly feel like I’m trying to function in a world that nobody else around me lives in.
I’m not sure that helps future generations, but it’s good to vent it all the same.
To be a bit more positive though, things I’m planning post-paralysis:
1. Bike my son to school as much as possible (weather-permitting)
2. Move house, so I can start thinking about greening our energy/water supply
3. Plant a tree
4. Move my savings to a more ethical bank/building society
Things I vouch to stop doing:
1. Fly
2. Drink coffee (ouch!)
3. Drink so much alcohol (wine limited to 2 nights a week, otherwise booze must be local)
I wonder whether we can start one of those annoying Facebook chain posts with nominations (currently it’s ‘7 things people don’t know about me’) along these lines!
Thank you so much for your comment Elen. I wasn’t too sure how this post was going to be received because when I write from the heart, not many people let me know how they feel. You have a great plan there for post climate paralysis. I wish you well in all your carbon-busting endeavours! Gav x
It’s so frustrating to see lack of change, and everyone going about their usual business of consume, consume, I don’t have time to think about making changes, or making things myself. I recently read a controversial comment from Nicole Foss, that the best thing we can do about climate change is not talk about it- the economic crash that is unfolding will have the effect of drastically reducing emissions. I sure hope so!
Hi Alicia. I’m not so sure. If there’s a crash, then wouldn’t people seek alternative fuels like trees. Deforestation would become rife, destroying valuable carbon sinks that are currently drawing down some of the carbon we are releasing into the atmosphere. Swings and roundabouts I suppose.
Hi Alicia – Many people feel they have no time and I fully understand this. Yet… one of the most significant actions we can all take to mitigate the effects of climate change is to reduce our consumption of discretionary items (including eating less meat) and shopping less actually saves a lot of time!
You’re not wrong Gavin, I think it’s not until most people realise that it will impact themselves or their loved ones that it becomes real. I remember it feeling real 20 years ago when I sat in my year 9 geography class talking about drought. The idea that wars would be fought over water. It was what sparked my journey to Sustainability. Now with a 4 and 5 year old, the decline in this fragile planet we all call home, change is no longer way off into the future… it is happening NOW.
I love Drew Dellinger’s poem “Hieroglyphic Stairway”- it’s on my desk at work… :
“It’s 3:23 in the morning and I’m awake because my great, great, grandchildren won’t let me sleep.
My great, great grandchildren ask me in dreams; What did you do, while the planet was plundered?”
(look it up, the poem is very touching)
Except now it isn’t the great, great grandchildren at risk, it is the next generation…
I needed some extra oomph to get moving today, thanks for the motivation!
Kellie
And thank you for the poem Kellie. It is most excellent.
Hi Kelly – I think we are all affected right here right now. There are already climate refugees and people effected by worsening and more frequent fires, droughts, floods and extreme weather. We also must not under-estimate the psychological impact of living with climate change impacts and future scenarios while watching our so-called leaders do very little to avoid the worst!
I can’t even think about the impacts on my grandids, even thinking about my kids futures can paralyse me with fear. The callous disregard most people show for the environment in which they live and the disgustingly selfish attitude of “well it won’t happen until after I’m dead so it doesn’t concern me” that is so very evident, makes me angry and despairing by turns. Still, if I fill my garden with edible plants, foster self sufficiency and self reliance into my kids and fill my brain and theirs with “how-to” nowledge then hopefully when the SHTF we will have a) what we need to survive and b) what we need to help others survive too.
Do you think my neighbours would appreciate me pumpkin bombing their front garden next year? 😉
And when I’m really hurting I go shopping, buy another fruit tree or perennial vegetable and put it in the garden. It helps for now and for the future too.
You are a great role model Jessie. You have truly converted your lifestyle, for the better I may add, to cope with some of the events that will eventually occur. By preparing your kids for the worst of it, helps them adapt to the best of it.
You can pumpkin bomb my front yard anytime! x
Hoorah Gavin! Thanks for telling it like it is.
In addition to personal choices like riding a bike, educating our children, gardens etc – we also need a political paradigm shift – so as well as doing our personal things like planting a garden I also urge that we get involved in where the rules are made, and making our voices heard. What’s that saying “The people get the leader they deserve.” We deserve something better so get out there and get involved where the rules are made.
Totally agree Jennifer. We should all become more politically active, because those who don’t participate in our democracy or do so once every four year are not holding our so called leaders accountable. Only active participation achieves this.
I agree that becoming active, involved citizens is mandatory now. Making individual behaviour/ consumption changes is very important but simply not enough. There simply is not enough of us at this point in time. Although this might change in the future, time is running out and the window for meaningful mitigation is closing fast.
Emily will be fine, Gav. With you for a role model, she couldn’t be otherwise.
Thanks Bev. Her parents are pretty green as well, and so is the country she lives in, so I am not too worried.
Gav, thanks for being the man that you are. I know that I was one of the people that has been responsible
for the mess that we are in but not any more !!!!!! I have made a veg garden and recycle as much as I can
But being nearly 70 years old and crippled with arthritis I cant do as much as I want but hubby does His bit too The chooks are doing their bit too
Great Grand Daughter looks wonderful and I am so proud to be her Great Grand Mother
Love to all from your Mum xoxoxox
You deserve a bit more credit Mum, because you helped me become the man I am today. And well done on all your achievements in your garden. It is lovely to hear from you.
Love Gav xox
Gavin, I loved and hated this post at the same time! One of my favourite things about you is your boundless enthusiasm, and I just wish you didn’t have to write such a negative post – but I agree that it’s all true… Thanks for not being all doom and gloom (although it is very gloomy) and continuing to inspire us all : )
PS tell your mum (comment above) that nobody’s blaming her, or her generation! I’m pretty sure my own generation (I was born in the 1980s) is just as / more responsible. Plus you’re right – she (indirectly) created the Greening of Gavin!
Thanks for your honesty Lindsay. You have probably noticed that on the occasion I do have a blue day. This post was one of them. I do try and keep as optimistic as I can but sometimes it is hard. x
I can relate (I expect we all can). Sometimes it seems like the challenges ahead of us are so overwhelming. I have to remind myself that I need to focus on what I can do and what I can change, rather than all the things I can’t. It’s the only thing that keeps me sane…!
Great post Gavin. I really appreciate people who tell it like it is. It would be great to see more comments on this post from like-minded people. I have nothing against positive thinking, yet it’s important to keep both feet on the ground at the same time. It’s also OK to express other than positive emotions in the face of this unfolding catastrophe.