Sleepwalking into the future. These are thoughts that have been mulling around in my head for quite a few years. I have finally been able to put it down coherently so that I can share it with you today.
As this episode was read from notes I have a transcript for you to read.
We live in the age of abundant energy, and we have a lot to be thankful for, but for how much longer, and what are we doing about it?
Humanity has reached a stage in its development where everything we now have is reliant on a source of cheap energy, in the form of fossil fuels. We have transportation that would shock an early 20th century person, as we can get from point A to point B with a minimum of fuss and travel distances in time-frames that would be unheard of only 50 years ago.
Way back then, only the rich could afford to fly, and the rest of us were stuck on the ground or traveled vast distances slowly via the oceans. However, whilst on the ground we spent this precious resource building roads and freeways that have cut the travelling time between cities in half (except for the odd traffic jam).
We have built magnificent cities from steel, concrete and glass (with the aid of oil) that glow in the night that can be seen from space. These cities house many millions of people throughout the world and consume resources from neighboring countryside.
We have a medical procedures that can replace most parts of the body when they get diseased or worn out, except for the human brain, but I am sure we are working on that as well. We live longer than any other time in human history and have the biggest population that increases by 1,000,000,000 people every 25 years.
All because of cheap energy in the form of oil and other fossil fuels.
So, on the down side, at this very moment we are on a plateau of energy production. Our demand for energy is now outstripping supply, and this demand grows with every single human born into existence. Prices rise because of supply shortages, and this in turn continues to feed the woes of the continuing economic crisis which is build on continuous upward growth.
However, with all fossil fuels and natural resources being of finite supply, our economic system is bashing up against natural hard limits. You cannot have a system that is reliant on growth when there is only so much of everything. You cannot change the laws of physics.
Not only fossil fuels are depleting, but things like fresh water with depletion in the form of ancient aquifers, phosphates for fertilization, arable land to grow food on, and global fish stocks.
We do not seem to be awake to the fact that many of the things we take for granted are depleting rapidly, we have no plan to implement a scalable replacement for our energy needs, which drives all other human activities.
Even with all our cleverness, much of humanity lacks the foresight to plan for a future with less of everything. Our population has grown alongside of energy growth, because we have been able to produce abundant surpluses of food. But only in some parts of the world. Over 5/7th of our species do not have a regular meal on the table, or access to clean drinking water.
Recent events do not fill me with joy or hope. Our governments will continue to talk until 2015, and then maybe do something serious about greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. We will be committed to at least 3 and a half degrees Centigrade hotter world in 2100. That is totally unpredictable.
It will only get hotter after that. This is already happening now, in our own lifetimes. Surely we can do better than this?
Now that we have hit the 7,000,000,000 mark in population, and that we are constrained by natures hard limits, and the threat of environmental disaster in the form of a changing climate, what are we to do? I ask myself this question every day, and wonder often ‘what happens next?’ How are we to cut emissions by 50-80% by 2050, and reduce our dependence on fossil fuels if it is predicted that the human population will be at 9 billion?
More people means more emissions and more resources. I believe that we will be too worried about feeding ourselves, rather than trying to stabilize the climate!
So many unanswered questions, and with little visible action from world leaders and governments, I am afraid I cannot think of any other outcome except a train-wreck. I may be wrong, but I think our civilization is moving too fast on the rails to slow down in time. But think of this train-wreck happening in slow motion.
We are at overshoot, and the only other result is a long slow decline. All because we have delayed action on alternative energy, changing our economic system, mitigating climate change, and population overshoot to feed economic growth and to fatten someones wallet. Whatever happens from now on in, it will not be pretty.
Look, I didn’t mean to bring everyone down, but we do live in troubled times. It is just that many of us cannot connect the dots, or even want to talk about these big issues. We only have one habitable planet in this neck of the Universe, so we have to clean up the mess we made. What is needed is a call to arms, and where we start talking about these issues on a daily basis. The more we talk about it, the more thinking we will do, and we may even come up with some real solutions for the climate or an effective way to power-down during energy descent.
However, until such time that we really start talking seriously, we will just keep things as business as usual. The only problem is that business is starting to get bad! We are sleepwalking into the future.
I will leave you with this thought
Vision without Action is merely a dream, and
Action without Vision just passes the time, however,
Vision with Action can change the world!
Very well written and expressed. You are so so right. So much of what you have pointed out is in front of us to witness and yet unseen by many. You hear everyone talking about how hot it will be this summer (as it was last) and all the natural disasters occurring but you don’t hear them ask why.
How to broadcast this to the unconverted? What forum would suit. Perhaps schools during Environment Week?
This is not something that people want to hear, but it needs to be said. I think we need to be aware of the “big picture” but also understand what we can do individually to make a difference, otherwise there is a risk of getting bogged down in hopelessness. What you do on your blog and in your workshops helps people to know that they can make lots of small changes, thanks for sharing what you know Gavin.
A very thought provoking post Gavin, I think many people will ponder your words. I agree with what you say and try to reduce and recycle in my own small way. I am embarrassed of this generation’s lack of action and complacency…what will they say about us in the future? I think politicians own agendas and shortsightedness are responsible as well at greed by big companies
Spot on!
Hi Gavin,
Enjoying your podcast from Belgium. I work in EU public policy and I increasingly hear people talking about a shift away from an idea of growth in purely monetary terms and towards a concept of building society where success and value is based on only on the finances but also on the health and wellbeing of citizens, on care for the environment and long-term societal benefit. Plenty of resistence to the new concept, of course – but I think it is gaining ground, which is encouraging. An idea of ‘growth’ which relates to personal and communal fulfilment as well as the numbers.
I also want to say that the more people live green lives – and normalise this lifestyle/outlook – the more momentum will build behind these changes at political levels.
Nickie
Many people are concerned and worried but this does not necessarily translate into action. There seems to be too many other ‘priorities’ which get in the way. I agree with Nickie above when she says we need to normalise a low energy and consumption way of life. You are doing a great job, Gavin, and reaching many people through your blog.
Thanks Gavin. I think it is going to be a long slow decline our only hope people like yourself.
Greetings from Kentucky,
In my small neighborhood world the people are concentrating on the day to day survival of….. will there be enough in the paycheck to keep a roof over their heads, food in their stomachs, and to pay for medications. How can these neighbors be thinking about global issues when it takes everything in them to concentrate on today, here, and now. Or they are concentrating on “will there even be a paycheck next week” which is a real possibility to them. Ask one of my neighbors what is global warming and the response might be to ask if it’s a new program to help pay the utility bills. It’s really hard for people to think about events that might happen 50 years from now when it takes everything in them to simply survive the next 24 hours.
It takes many voices to change a government. Then it takes many governments to change a global issue. How can people influence their governments with raised voices when for a majority of the people its enough to survive day to day. I do all I can to live green and show by example as often as I’m able. The neighbors might not do what I do but they do see it and will eventually understand too.
Don’t be discouraged that change comes so slowly. You already know changes comes with one voice at a time. Each voice influences a few other voices who then influence other voices. Or, that train wreck might happen, everyone wakes up to reality, and everyone works together to fix things.
Gav,
This is a very thought-provoking piece. Thanks for getting my ol’ noggin going. I wish to add something. No matter how much we preach to the choir, it’s not going to change much. It’s probably too late for us to stop up to a 6 degree increase based on recent reports by the IPCC et al. However, this creates an opportunity for us to become more resilient. We, the choir, know this. However, it’s our responsibility to change the minds of the majority. People such as you strike where it is most important and relevant – to make the connection between our normal urban/suburban lives and the impact they have upon the planet. If we are going to come together and talk, we need to talk about what is important – how we are going to affect those that are not yet members of the choir.