• About
  • Archive
  • Contact
The Greening of Gavin
  • Home
  • Our Green Shop
    • Little Green Workshops
  • Green Workshops
    • Cheese Making
    • Soap Making
    • Soy Candle Making
  • eBooks
    • Clay Oven eBook
    • Keep Calm and Make Cheese eBook
  • Podcast
    • TGOG Podcast
    • TGoG Podcast Archive
    • Little Green Cheese
  • Vlog
  • Cheese
  • Green Living
    • Chickens
    • Gardening
    • Soap Making
    • Recipes
    • Climate Change
    • Peak Oil
    • Solar Power
  • Resources

Myths For The Peak

July 26, 2011 @ 23:26 By Gavin Webber 3 Comments

As a follow on from yesterday’s post about ‘The Peak‘, I thought I would try and bust some myths about current technological solutions.  Tomorrow I will cover what we may, and indeed some folk are already doing about preparing for the coming energy decent.

So on to the mythbusting (I feel like Adam and Jamie)

Myth 1: We will never run out of oil, we will just have to pay more for it.
Well, yes this is technically true.  However the myth is that this is used for an argument to brush aside the issue and provides and excuse not to act now.  The reason we will not run out is because the economy will not be able to sustain the price of oil scarcity and will either collapse (aka 2008), or adapt without it before we use the very last drop.  I don’t like the fact that ‘paying more’ means that ‘more’ will be up to10 times the current price.  Not only will petrol (gasoline) go up, everything else will as well.

Myth 2: We will just drive electric cars or drive less.
If we started converting all the current cars and trucks in the world it would take us over ten years, with the right amount of government focus and unlimited credit.

I don’t see much of either lately and I think that the video is a pipe dream.  If you haven’t read the news lately, the U.S. is having a bit of trouble raising the cash to pay government debt as is the Eurozone, and look at all the wonderful global political action on climate change we have not seen lately!  Anyway, what are we going to make tyres, plastic and bitumen from.  Yes folks you need oil.  We won’t be driving much if we can’t maintain the roads either which takes copious amounts of the black sticky stuff.

Myth 3: We will switch to ethanol based fuels.
I don’t think so.  Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) comes into play here.  To grow the plants i.e. sugar cane, corn, soy, to make the ethanol, it actually takes about a barrel of oil to make a barrel of ethanol.  It is a no win situation.  In fact some say that it takes more than a barrel of oil to make the equivalent in ethanol.  Besides that the amount of arable land required is enormous.  I only have figures for the United States, but to fuel all the vehicles in the US with 100% ethanol it would take about 97% of the US land area needed to grow the corn!  Do you really want to make humanity go hungry just so that you can drive your car?

Myth 4: The world will stop dead because of Peak Oil.
I believe this to be untrue.  Peak oil is the period in time when the most oil is produced.  Like I said previously, the peak happened between 2004 and 2008, but we still have a few years, or even a couple of decades to act upon the issue.  The world won’t stop, but we will go from recession to depression with spurts of growth in between as alternatives are developed and not last very long.  How long the energy decent lasts is a question of how long before we switch and adapt to post-oil economy.

Myth 5: We will switch to Natural Gas and Coal
These two alternatives to oil are also fossil fuels or ancient sunlight as I like to call them.  With global coal reserves most probably overestimated, and China’s ravenous demand for the stuff, we are going to peak some time soon within the next few decades.  Demand will outstrip supply, just like it has oil.  Just one question?  What is going to fuel all of that mining equipment?  Last time I looked the trucks, excavators and the trains used to ship it to port all ran on diesel, which is made from oil, and don’t start me on bio-diesel!
As for natural gas, Australia’s supply is sold overseas to whoever is willing to pay for it.  Transporting gas cost 6-10 times the equivalent for oil, with LNG being the most expensive.  Compressing gas requires a lot of energy.  Production decline one is starts tends to be steeper for gas than for oil and production has already begun in the UK and Europe, and North America.  Russia is the only country propping up the rest of Europe with it gas reserves, which are expected to decline in the next decade.

Myth 6: Australia has Natural Gas for over 100 years. 
Not quite so.  I found this paper titled ‘NATURAL GAS – “MAGIC PUDDING” OR DEPLETING RESOURCE.  A dissertation on the state of Australian natural gas‘ by B.J. Fleay B.Eng., M.Eng.Sc., M.I.E.Aust., M.A.W.A. August 2007.  It is an eye opening paper.

It states that for Eastern Australian Gas;

  • Production in the Cooper/Eromanga Basins that have supplied gas to Brisbane,
    Sydney and Adelaide since 1980 is in rapid decline. Pipelines from the Gippsland/Otway basins to Adelaide and Sydney have been built to augment gas supply.
  • The Gippsland Basin should reach 80 per cent depletion of commercial reserves by 2015, if sub-commercial reserves are included, about 2020. Scope for additional discovery in the Gippsland Basin appears to be limited. So far performance in the Otway Basin has been disappointing.
  • Rapid development of CSM is underway in Queensland. Less so in NSW and Victoria. The potential resource base in Queensland and NSW is large, but not yet fully understood. The cost is higher than existing supply but rather less than gas piped from Papua New Guinea and major western natural gas fields.
  • Methane can be extracted from coal seams by drilling wells and extracting water to release the gas. More wells are needed than for conventional gas. These are shallower and can have a higher production rate, but often have a shorter life.
  • A major problem is both the impact of this water extraction on aquifers and the
    subsequent environmental problems of its disposal. These are major issues in southern Australia’s drying climate.
  • CSG in Central and Southern Queensland is being used to fuel gas turbines for
    electric power and for domestic gas consumption.
  • The Sydney coal basin in NSW is regarded as a major potential source near its major market, but so far development is limited. A major problem will be water management for gas extraction in a major urban environment.

And for Western Australia;

  • The North West Shelf Joint Ventures existing gas fields will reach 80 percent depletion between 2020 and 2025. Without incorporating major new discoveries its LNG and domestic gas supply will decline rapidly. The 5th LNG train is being built anticipating new discoveries. The NWSJV is searching for new gas fields. It has gas fields in its sights held by the Gorgon JV.

So not much hope for sustaining the older conventional gas fields in Australia, with heavy reliance on Coal Seam Gas, the offshore NW shelf and Gorgon fields and fracking.  Not a good outcome I fear because EROEI comes into play here as well.  As oil depletes and prices rise, it will cost more to extract the natural gas.  The price of extraction may outweigh the price they can effectively sell it for.  Once again China’s appetite for LNG will force extraction to double or triple, therefore depleting quickly. 

Anyway, that is enough myth-busting for one post.  You can now see the scale of our dilemma which I hope paints a picture, but not too bleak.  Like I said yesterday, there is hope if we begin to prepare.

Tomorrow, I will write about energy decent and some solutions for a post peak world.


Credit goes to the following sites which have been a wealth of information for this post and who’s concepts I have tried to explain in my own words:

  • ASPO Australia
  • Post Carbon Institute
  • Peak Oil Tasmania
  • Dry Dipstick

Will this article help someone you know? If so help them out by sharing now!

  • Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Pinterest (Opens in new window)
  • Click to share on Tumblr (Opens in new window)
  • Click to print (Opens in new window)
  • Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window)
  • More
  • Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)

Related

Filed Under: Peak Everything, Peak Oil

← The Peak Education for The Peak →

About Gavin Webber

Gavin Webber's daily goal is to live a more sustainable lifestyle, in an effort to reduce his family's environmental footprint so we can all make a difference for our children & future generations to come.

Learn more about him here and connect with him on Twitter, Facebook, and Google+.

Comments

  1. 500m2 says

    July 27, 2011 at 00:23

    Sobering stuff. Easy it see why it is in Australia’s best interest to get ahead in the renewable energy space.

    Reply
  2. nevyn says

    July 27, 2011 at 11:00

    Hi Gavin,

    Myth 3, I’m sure there are plenty of people who would happily let humanity starve so they could drive their big fuel guzzling cars.

    I’m looking forward to your next installment.

    Reply
  3. HAZEL says

    July 28, 2011 at 00:07

    Thanks for this. You have done some great research and have summed it up succinctly. I am looking forward to tomorrow’s post.

    Reply

Comments build lively communities. Let me know your thoughts, but keep it clean and green! Spam is removed instantly. Cancel reply

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Search This Blog

Follow my work

About Gavin Webber

About Gavin Webber

An Ordinary Australian Man Who Has A Green Epiphany Whilst Watching A Documentary, Gets a Hybrid Car, Plants A Large Organic Vegetable Garden, Goes Totally Solar, Lowers Consumption, Feeds Composts Bins and Worms, Harvests Rainwater, Raises Chickens, Makes Cheese and Soap, and Eats Locally. All In The Effort To Reduce Our Family's Carbon Footprint So We Can Start Making A Difference For Our Children & Future Generations To Come.

Delve Into the Archives

Visit Our Online Simple Living Shop

Little Green Workshops

Latest Podcast Episode

Subscribe on iTunes

Top Posts & Pages

The Seven Stages Of Change
Strawbridge Family Inspiration
How To Remove Scaly Leg Mites
Building a Wicking Bed on Concrete
Repeat After Me. I Will Never Plant Potatoes With Pumpkins Again
Building a VegTrug or Two
Contact
Clay Oven First Layer
All Good Things Come to an End
Home Made Camembert

Recent Awards

Recent Awards

Local Green Hero

Categories

Favourite Daily Reads

Debt Free, Cashed Up, and Laughing

The Off-Grid Solar House

Greener Me

The Rogue Ginger

Little Eco Footprints

Down To Earth

Surviving the Suburbs

Little Green Cheese

Eight Acres

The Witches Kitchen

TGOG Readers On-line

Podcast Reviews

  • Always inspiring and entertaining!
    August 4, 2016 by floriographer from Australia

    I've crowed about Gavin's podcast before but I just have to recommend it once again - I love that he shares his learning as well as his successes - it helps the rest of us try try try again! Thanks Gavin!

  • ms
    July 22, 2016 by Ketaea12 from New Zealand

    I really enjoy listening to Gavin, he has a kind lovely voice. He covers some great relevant topics for the everyday greenie. With lots of tips or how to or what not to do. Thanks Gavin, love it!!

  • Well worth your time to tune in
    October 23, 2015 by A Vision Splendid from Australia

    I can highly recommend Gavin’s podcast ! I have followed Gavin’s blog since the very beginning and have loved to see his journey unfold. Gavin has a lovely speaking voice so this podcast is always very easy to listen to. Gavin has a very authentic approach to his green living lifestyle. He shares the ups and downs but always provides motivation and practical steps that we can all implement.

  • very good
    June 28, 2015 by Scared pax from United Kingdom

    This is a great podcast if you want to improve your life in so many aspects and become a more sustainable person. I love the soothing voice, the good pace, and it contains lots of useful information. Recommended!

  • opened my eyes
    May 25, 2015 by Gorn4lyfe from Australia

    A wonderful show!

  • Inspiring
    April 30, 2015 by Alan Whelan from Ireland

    This is a great podcast if you're looking for practical info on saving money by living more sustainably from someone who's made that journey over the last few years. Told in a nice, easy conversational style

  • Green Living, inspiring and practical
    January 8, 2015 by EliseMac from Australia

    Thanks Gav for sharing what has (and hasn't) worked along your journey for living a greener lifestyle. Inspiring and achievable for anyone, I look forward to this podcast weekly.

  • Local food equals less waste
    December 27, 2014 by allotmentadventureswithjean from Australia

    Another brilliant podcast from Gavin Webber encouraging us, and showing us how, to cut down on food miles, growing our own food, and cutting down on food waste. Gavin is a really interesting speaker, showing us how to eat better, growing our own food and how to live more sustainably.

  • Honestly australian
    December 15, 2014 by HodgepodgeOz from Australia

    Fantastic podcast, with a wide variety of well thought and researched topics. Gavin is a honest, forthright pod aster with a genuine interest in helping others get green. Like a day alongside is a day wasted, so too is a week without listening to Gavin. Highly recommended for people starting out, or those in the midst of their new lifestyle. Keep it up Gavin, wish there were more great reviews! Kimberley

  • Morning motivation
    December 8, 2014 by Bunnyworm from Australia

    Gavin has a great passion for living this greener lifestyle that motivates others to do the same. The podcasts are always interesting and informative. :)

  • Passionate Advocate
    October 18, 2014 by BoomOpGirl from Australia

    Gavin's enthusiasm and passion for creating a more sustainable world is nothing short of contagious. Thanks Gav, you are my weekly source of motivation for living a sustainable life! :)

  • Gavin speaks from the heart
    October 13, 2014 by Green gavin from Australia

    Gavin's podcasts are required listening for anyone planning to live a more sustainable life. He doesn't preach, but tells you his story from the heart. You'll laugh, smile, share in his concerns and along the way you'll pick up some great tips on living a simple life.

  • Green thoughts, so well iterated
    October 9, 2014 by Kwasikwami from Australia

    This is a wonderful podcast. Not only does Gavin talk knowledgeably on a range of sustainability topics from gardening tips all the way to the issues facing humanity as a whole, but he does so in such a wonderful voice, it's like listening to my Dad, love it!!

  • Easy listening inspiration on being green
    September 24, 2014 by Broomedy from Australia

    Gav knows how to share his journey to a more sustainable life in a manner that shows just how easy it really is. Not to mention healthier, economically beneficial and generally rewarding. The podcasts are an easy way to absorb Gav's great lifestyle. I recommend to anyone.

  • Thanks Gavin!
    August 31, 2014 by Honeywoodmilk from Australia

    Great practical advice for a greener lifestyle. This podcast is for anybody interested in growing their own food in suburbia, saving electricity, brewing beer, making cheese, all that wonderful business and most of all, saving money! Thanks Gavin, love the podcast mate!

  • Enjoyed those ideas for staying warm
    August 15, 2014 by enduringdragon from United States

    Like you we are having winter here in Chile—brrr! Every bit we can save on heating we will.

  • Green Podcasts
    July 26, 2014 by Carneu from Australia

    Excellent podcasts, which are full of information to help get started on a sustainable lifestyle.

  • Practical ideas and inspiration
    July 19, 2014 by HeathrowHeath from Australia

    I highly recommend Gavin's podcast and blog. Down to earth, entertaining and inspirational. Thank you.

  • Interesting & easy to listen to
    April 27, 2014 by Velocity3 from New Zealand

    Gavin & his guests make this green journey lots of fun.

  • Great green listen
    April 18, 2014 by Obscurenickname from Australia

    Gavin is a great down to earth, tell it like it is aussie with a passion for sustainability and growing food and making cheese

Carbon Offset website

Copyright - Gavin Webber © 2023